Unconventional vs Conventional Wisdom this Spring
December 18, 2008 by Thomas Esparza
Filed under Features
The conventional wisdom on a number of issues may no longer be true:
Conventional Wisdom: The incoming Obama administration’s
priorities will guide Congress as it goes about making laws in
2009 and 2010. Fact: Congress has its own ideas for legislation.
While Congress will pay close attention to the incoming Obama
administration’s priorities, especially in the first 100 days,
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ultimately it is Congress that makes law, not the President. And
Congress’s ideas of good policy may well diverge from the
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administration’s. We are seeing some signs that Congress may well
be more aggressive in the near term on immigration than the
Administration (this is not an issue of intention, merely an
issue of implementation, since the incoming team is
understandably tied up in personnel issues).
Conventional Wisdom: Rahm Emmanuel’s appointment as Chief of
Staff at the White House portends trouble for immigration given
the fact that he was the key person responsible for the failure
to get CIR off the ground in the House in the 110th Congress.
Fact: Rahm Emmanuel at the White House may well be immigration’s
best friend. As chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign
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Committee, Mr. Emmanuel’s goal was to help elect as many House
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Democrats as possible which, by the lay of the political land,
were largely in purple, moderate districts where immigration
could have proven a weapon for the Republicans. Mr. Emmanuel’s
new job, by contrast, is to help elect just one Democrat – Mr.
Obama in 2012. Immigration here could well be a weapon against
the Republicans, in helping sway critical states in the Southwest
and Southeast.
Conventional Wisdom: Republican votes and Blue Dog votes will
be necessary to win any broad immigration legislation, like CIR.
Fact: Democrats will control a 58% majority in the new Senate,
and a 59% majority in the new House. No more than a very small
handful (5 or so) Republican votes will be needed or available to
pass CIR. This is in marked contrast to the entire period from
the 1980s to now, where all the major immigration acts were
passed with either significant or crucial Republican support (the
same general analysis as above also goes for the Blue Dogs). One
of the consequences of the composition of the new Congress is
that employment based immigration has significantly fewer friends
than before, a fact that may prove fatal to more than one major
employment based immigration program (in particular, we would not
be too surprised to see proposals to temporarily eliminate the
H1B visa in light of the economic downturn).
Conventional Wisdom: CIR must include three legs -
legalization, massive new enforcement, massive guest worker
programs. Fact: The composition of the new Democratic caucus,
especially in the House, argues strongly against the old ideas of
what CIR should look like. This is the most liberal (or leftist)
Democratic caucus since the 1970s, it’s leanings on many matters,
including immigration, will likely surprise many in the
immigration community who have gotten accustomed to centrist
approaches to benefits and enforcement. In particular, we believe
that the guest worker component of CIR is either completely gone,
or close to gone (the House immigration sub-committee chair, Ms.
Lofgren, is out-of-sync with the new Democratic caucus on
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employment based immigration). What we may be seeing is a replay
of the 1980s, when Congress first confronted the past -
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legalization and enforcement in IRCA in 1986, and only four years
later, in 1990, came around to the future – expanded immigration
flows, both temporary and permanent. The new CIR may be nothing
more than a giant new IRCA. Expanded immigration flows may well
have to wait for a future Congress, just like two decades ago
(the difference this time is that expanded immigration flows will
likely focus on low-skilled workers and high-skilled workers
equally, whereas in IMMACT’90 Congress forgot about low-skilled
workers). All the above point to three conclusions: (1) there
will be an aggressive move, quite early in the new year, for
significant immigration benefits legislation, which, for the lack
of a better term, we are calling CIR; (2) the signs point to this
move being led by Congress, and not the Administration; (3) the
bills to be marked up may omit new guest worker programs, and
perhaps even significantly restrict existing guest worker
programs, such as the H1B program. There appears to be plenty of
excitement ahead, fasten your seat belts.
We welcome readers to share their opinion and ideas with us by
writing to mailto:editor@ilw.com
New CDJ I-601 Waiver Procedures
December 18, 2008 by Thomas Esparza
Filed under Attorneys
All -
My client had his I-601 waiver appointment in CDJ (at the new consulate) on Fri, Dec. 12 at 7:00am. THEY DO NOT APPROVE THE SAME DAY ANYMORE. Here is what he told me:
You go into the consulate and are taken in in “groups”. The first thing you do is pay (of course) and turn in the waiver at the window. You are then directed to pre-pay $7 or $8 for a DHL package and are given a DHL tracking number. That’s it. You are told that you will have a decision within 24 hours. Then you just go home.
Within 24 hours you must call DHL or check on-line whether they have your package (that you pre-paid for at the consulate). You cannot just show up at DHL b/c it is extremely crowded. Once you verify that your package is there, you can go pick it up. In the package was my clients passport and approval letter, along with the visa paperwork to present at the border. So then he went to the POE as directed and turned in the paperwork. It took him about 4 hours at the POE, but then he was able to cross into the US.
So the same-day approval is gone now. Oh, and if you go on Friday, you will have to wait until Monday to get your package because the consulate is closed on the weekend. Everyone else’s package should be ready the next business day. I wonder if this is going to change approval rates, now that they don’t have to tell you to your face that you are denied? Just wanted to let you all know.
Margarita Silva
Law Offices of Navidad, Leal & Silva
323 W. Roosevelt, #200
Phoenix, AZ 85003
Tel 602.257.0000
Fax 602.251.3170
margarita.silva@ azbar.org
